Karol Nawrocki has narrowly won Poland’s presidential election in a contest seen as a choice between a pro-EU or Trump-style nationalist direction for the country.
Data from Poland’s National Electoral Commission projected the Right-wing Mr Nawrocki had edged out Rafal Trzaskowski with 50.89 per cent of the vote to his rival’s 49.11 per cent.
It was a dramatic turnaround from initial figures, which showed the liberal mayor of Warsaw ahead. For much of the night, the election had been considered too close to call.
Mr Trzaskowski, of the ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO), and Mr Nawrocki, a nationalist historian and amateur boxer backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS), were locked in a race that Polish broadcaster TVP called “the most even” in the country’s history.
Despite an initial exit poll showing no decisive winner, both men declared victory early – Mr Trzaskowski told his supporters, “we won by a whisker”, while Mr Nawrocki posted on X: “Thank you all! We will triumph.”
Mr Trzaskowski had been expected to prevail – though by less than one percentage point – until a second exit poll suddenly put Mr Nawrocki ahead.
The final exit poll released at 1am local time had a +/- 0.5 per cent margin of error and still showed Mr Nawrocki in the lead.
Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, initially appeared to take the lead – Omar Marques/Getty
As results trickled in throughout the night, the country anxiously awaited the outcome of an election which will determine the ability of the centrist government, led by prime minister Donald Tusk, to deliver on its agenda.
A win for Mr Nawrocki gives a much-needed boost to PiS, who lost power in 2023 after eight years.
A PiS ally, Andrzej Duda, is the current holder of the Polish presidency, and has spent the last several years stonewalling Mr Tusk’s policies.
Mr Trzaskowski, 53, campaigned on a promise to help Mr Tusk’s government complete its democratic reforms, which they both say aim to repair an erosion of checks and balances under the previous nationalist government.
Parliament holds most of the power in Poland, but the president can veto legislation, so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the US and across the European Union.
Both candidates agreed on the need to spend heavily on defence, as Mr Trump is demanding from Europe, and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s three-year-old invasion.
But while Mr Trzaskowski sees Ukraine’s future membership of Nato as essential for Poland’s security, Mr Nawrocki said recently that if he were president he would not ratify it because of the danger of the alliance being drawn into war with Russia.
The race has also drawn the attention of the Polish diaspora, who are allowed to vote in presidential and parliamentary elections and overwhelmingly favoured Mr Trzaskowski, with the exception of Poles in the US and Canada who leaned toward Mr Nawrocki.
Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, smiles at the joy of supporters of Rafal Trzaskowski – Sergei Gapon/AFP via Getty
Both candidates had hinted at the high stakes on the campaign trail.
“This is the time to save Poland,” Mr Nawrocki said after the first round.
“I told you eight months ago it would be very close – and it is very close,” Mr Trzaskowski said.
Mr Trzaskowski narrowly came out on top in the first round, winning 31.4 per cent of the vote to Mr Nawrocki’s 29.5 percent.
One Ipsos poll breakdown found that Mr Trzaskowski led among Poles aged 40-59.
The PiS, meanwhile, narrowly took the 60-plus bracket, while younger Poles tended to break for other parties either on the far Right or far Left.
Since then, the two run-off candidates have been appealing to supporters of the other parties, with centrist and leftist candidates defeated in the first round endorsing Mr Trzaskowski.
Mr Nawrocki got a boost from the Trump administration’s Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary.
Preliminary results are displayed during the election night event showing the percentage of votes for the presidential candidates – Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty
‘Train wreck’
In a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland last week, she called Mr Trzaskowski “a train wreck”.
The Trump White House has enjoyed warm relations with Mr Duda, the current Polish president, and was looking to continue them under another PiS-backed president.
Mr Nawrocki travelled to Washington earlier this year to meet with Mr Trump.
In the run-up to the election, Mr Tusk emphasised broad security concerns, including the threat of “weaponised” migration from Poland’s border with Russian ally Belarus.
He has also criticised the European Green Deal, while calling for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels from Russia, more defence spending in Europe, and for Ukraine to eventually be admitted into Nato.
Domestically, his government also oversaw a public apology to LGBT people in Poland through state television, efforts to depoliticise courts that have been packed with PiS loyalists over the last 10 years, and moves to liberalise abortion access.
However, many of the reforms on Mr Tusk’s current to-do list remain hamstrung in the country’s current political deadlock between prime minister and president.
Voter turnout in the election hit a record high of 71.7 per cent, according to the poll, besting the 68.23 per cent who voted in the 1995 presidential race.
Full results are expected on Monday.
